[Mafia Win] [S2] Assassins XII: Power Up!

[Rainboy]

Spoiler!

R1: Lynch Tally:
Styx - 4 - NumBle, Rainboy, Lawliet, katCrusader

R2: Lynch Tally:
K0ntRa - 5 - Lawliet, katCrusader, SiX, NumBle, Emziek

Pretty much clear for me now. Numble, Lawliet and katCrusader at the same team. This time i'll go for [vote NumBle]

It's logic, villagers. We are not too many left. You have to back me up on this. Two rounds in a row they voted for villagers... oh it was a mistake? I don't think so.

Honestly, you guys need to look beyond just the lynch tally. We did vote for villagers. Styx was not only unproductive but also somewhat afk.

So you're saying that Styx, who was much more experienced than Panda, was a better choice to lynch?

Yes I'm saying Styx was a better choice than Panda. I've played with him before and turned out to be nothing more than a troll or an afker. Besides I wanted to give a chance for Panda to play, considering this is his first game.

the R2 lynch Tally was purely because Kontra was a dumb fuck about his arguments and got himself lynch.

Kontra was very active and contributing to the village. No one is buying your bullshit (apart from your teammates of course).

Yes he was active. So am I, so is Rain, so are you, so is most people. Your point is?

Besides just like Xen has said before, "Wtf? Lawliet and I vote together two times and that's all the evidence you need that we're super tight mafia buddies? Spurious correlations much?"

Refers to his teammate, the one who joined him in both lynches. Not very smart mate...

I'm not even sure of what teh fuck you're talking about here. Really, you need to get checked out. I simply quoted what Katcrusader said so that I don't bother having to say it in my own words.

At this point I'm just assuming Voro, Ultor, Panda and Arsenic can be a team. Although I don't really want to throw names out there without being sure of anything.

Ohh already? Running out of options now aren't we? Giving a vague statement without any kind of evidence whatsoever. Getting sick of this mate.

If i were running out of options I'd straight up say that you 4 are mafia. I didn't say so, so no I'm not running out of options. If anything you're being an idiot for still trying to push this god-awful lynch on me. Stop being an idiot will you?


At this point I'm just waiting for someone clever enough to realize that we have 3 soothsayers and you fuckers are pushing a lynch on me, wasting another round on a villager.

Again, a diversion is made here by saying "we have 3 soothsayers" when in fact we have more Politicens. No mate, we're not wasting this one now.

Dude, really you're dumb as fuck. Soothsayers can do more damage because they do not reveal they fucking alignment. Politicians however do. Would you rather have a soothsayer mafia telling that X and Y are mafia than having a politician villager helping you lynching a mafia?

Holy crap this is completely unreadable. I'm not even going to try.

[Rainboy]

Aaaand I'm at the end. And upset. Very upset. You all are idiots.

Repeating last round's first vote because Arsenic has STILL been pretty quiet and I'd really rather see him lynched this round after last night's shooting spree. Would also be content with Kat or Lawliet. Why are we trying to lynch Numble and Ultor? Let's deal with that next round, not this.

[vote Arsenic]



P.S - Ultor, do us all a favor and rub two brain cells together before you run your hands across the keyboard. Your arguments make no sense to me, and if it weren't for the hard evidence presented last round in the form of 4 shots, I'd be right there on your bandwagon too.

[Rainboy]

Note: I have used my godlike admin powers to copy hater's list of base powers to the first page. Hopefully he doesn't have a problem with this; if he does, he can slap me on the wrist publicly later.

[Numble]

Ok. Forgetting about Ultor's immensely dumb posts, let's back track a bit.

Right now I'd say we should focus on Kat, Arsenic and Lawliet. They all survived shots, reason to believe that they should be a main priority. So lets round them up and see what we have:

Kat has been pretty reactionary about things. Lawliet seems to be his usual self, low posts and nothing too obvious to point out. Arsenic though has been playing immensely out of his characteristic ways. He tends to be quite active and clear about his reasoning. The fact that he has remained quiet almost through the entire game strikes me as odd specially considering the whole situation that is going on.

Now I'd like to round up the possible ways to survive a shot role wise:
Medic (x2)
Doc
Tough Trainee(x2)

And now power wise:
Fortitude
Blast Shield

Considering that no one took Blast shield and that one of the fortitudes have worn off. The possible out comes are

Two of them protected by Medics and the other one by the Doc:
Two of them have Tough Trainee and the other one protected by the Doc;
One of them is a Tough Trainee, one of them was protected by a medic and the remaining one was protect by the Doc.

It actually strikes me as odd for Arsenic to be a target considering he's been quiet through out the game. Nonetheless, it is really uncharacteristic of him. For that I'm going to [vote Arsenic] (unknown target)

Following up, Kat has been quite reactive to votes, which tends to be a mafia thing. Honestly, this makes her the up runner to be Lynched in my eyes, but my opinion matters not and I don't see anything particularly useful coming from Lawliet. They somewhat in the same stance of being lynched, but Kat more for being reactive, characteristic of mafia play.

[Rainboy]

For the sake of analysis, why exclude me from your findings? You not only exclude me from the list of suspects, but also seem to take my claim of fortitude at face value without even allowing for the possibility that I'm lying.

That, and you just ran with the two things that I gave you in private just now (arsenic being afk and kat being reactionary) and in public (echoing what Emz said earlier) without really adding anything meaningful to them (imo). Your order for lynch also mirrors what I told you exactly. Surely you can add your own analysis instead of leaning completely on the analysis of others, no? You could've at least made it clear that you were just following the insight of others instead of (seemingly) claiming it to be your own.

Still not reason for me to lynch you over one of those who were shot, but it is concerning to me to say the least.


Also, you forget that there are two Fortitudes in the game. Even if it were reasonable to take my claim at face value, your analysis fails to account for the (VERY unlikely) possibility of a fortitude villager + villager doc protect, leaving us at a minimum of one mafia, not two. Likewise, you also discount the case where the Doc did not successfully protect anyone last night and everyone's a mafia.

In short, you analysis is at the very least incomplete, and in my opinion flawed in that it relies way too much on my own thoughts for the game. Think for yourself.

[Maki]

[vote rainboy]

I don't really like how you're excusing and "downplaying Fortitude". If you thought it was "so helpful", having more villagers take it would've been beneficial. Suddenly downplaying it and then picking it doesn't make much sense to me.

Plus I still feel like there's about 4 or 5 powers that were much more useful, you claimed so yourself too.

Other player I'm not comfortable about right now are probably NumBle (weird lynches, ignoring Rainboy, Rainboy pressures him. Standard teammate strategy) and Voro's poulo (low activity, random votes: "wayward, rainboy & numble" none really explained, tells people "to follow him" for no real valid reason)

Probably others I'm missing, but feeling rather comfortable about Emziek with his judgement of Rainboy, I can't figure out why everybody's ignoring him though, most of what he wrote so far is logical, even more so this round.

[ARSENIC]

I survived because of fortitude.

I was the vig. I wanted to hold my bullets but shot lawliet and kat because I was worried I'd get Hitman'd this round.
Kind of a let-down that they didn't think I was important enough for it.

I have now lost my shots and my fort so I am effectively a regular villager.

I'm still completely certain Lawliet and Kat are both mafia.

[vote Lawliet]

[Ultor]

Okay everyone to start up, I am the Cop.

R0 negative peek: Voro's poulo
R1: Got roleblocked by a Vixen.
R2: NumBle, came back as Mafia (Team 2)

Since there were 2 people who got affected by a Vixen at R2 (Emizek and SiX), this eliminates the possibility of NumBle being framed, unless one of the other 2 was lying but that's highly unlikely considering NumBle's lynch pattern.

This is why I urge all villagers to vote lynch NumBle.

[Emziek]

[unvote]

[Ish]

Okay everyone to start up, I am the Cop.

R0 negative peek: Voro's poulo
R1: Got roleblocked by a Vixen.
R2: NumBle, came back as Mafia (Team 2)

Since there were 2 people who got affected by a Vixen at R2 (Emizek and SiX), this eliminates the possibility of NumBle being framed, unless one of the other 2 was lying but that's highly unlikely considering NumBle's lynch pattern.

This is why I urge all villagers to vote lynch NumBle.

Anyone else going to claim Cop?

Also the last two rounds I've been getting roleblocked, not that it had any effect.

[Ish]

[Vote NumBle]

[Ultor]

My recent chat with Leo is very interesting:

Spoiler!

Ultor: yo
Ultor: i see u looking at topic
strande65: morning
strande65: yes i did
strande65: to be honest was to lazy to read all again
strande65: but that you can be the cop sounds plausible for me
strande65: the sad thing is i cant help that much
strande65: and i would follow you
strande65: but there is one prob
strande65: im a soothsayer and my votes doesnt help that much
strande65: i could vote on you to give you a -1
strande65: but thats dumb too i think
strande65: i would get seen as mafia then i think
strande65: bcs no one know that im soothsayer expect you
Ultor: I want u to publically claim to be a soothsayer now then
Ultor: just like what Emizek did
strande65: brb looking for a coffee
Ultor: ok
strande65: back
Ultor: wb
Ultor: so listen
Ultor: what i want u to do
strande65: lol thx
Ultor: claim to be a soothsayer
Ultor: on topic
strande65: nah Ultor i wont make it public
Ultor: no you should
strande65: i share an other opinion than you on that
Ultor: why wont you make it public?
strande65: the mafias already know to much villagers who claimed their power or role
Ultor: Do u know what a soothsayer does?
Ultor: Even if u die, you can still vote
Ultor: and talk to alive people
Ultor: so dying is not a problem for soothsayers
Ultor: zzz
Ultor: hello?
strande65: sry the how is it called door ringbell?
strande65: the door bell ringed
Ultor: oh ok
Ultor: so
strande65: and i had a stupid talk with jehovas ahaha
strande65: so what different would it make to still hide as a villager
strande65: what you can do is
strande65: look at my votes
Ultor: listen man
strande65: i didn't voted once at the most votes
Ultor: that doesnt matter
Ultor: all i want u to do now
strande65: do not take the vote under control
Ultor: is to claim
Ultor: Remember dying doesnt mean u cant vote or talk to alive people
Ultor: why are u refusing to do so?
strande65: but that would mean -1 villager
strande65: and we are alread less people
strande65: you just give them the choice which easy targets the mafias wanna pick
Ultor: that doesnt matter, there are still 2 teams
Ultor: and u will still be able to vote when u are dead
Ultor: so u will still help village
strande65: yes but my vote is -1
Ultor: yeah
strande65: and emziek too
Ultor: so if mafia vote to lynch a villager
Ultor: you can use that -1
Ultor: for the village
Ultor: Even if u are dead
Ultor: why do u think emziek claimed?
strande65: you do know that thei have powers?
Ultor: if we know all 3 soothsayers, that would be good
Ultor: what
strande65: so that they can shot and shoot
Ultor: they only have 2 nightkills and maybe 1 hitman
Ultor: that doesnt matter leo
strande65: they dont even need to focus on the vote
strande65: if the know all villagers Ultor they can easy destroy us by shots im sure
strande65: give me time to think about it okay?
Ultor: no leo, you have to do it now if u want me to trust you
strande65: but i do not share your opinion at this place
Ultor: if not, then i will have to use those steam logs
Ultor: on the topic myself
strande65: if you are clever you look on my posts and on my votes
strande65: if you feel you have to claim this public without my permission do it
strande65: you are to stubborn for me that you want to control all by your own
strande65: i have my thoughts why i dont follow you blind
strande65: and if you wanna use it as "he lies" go ahead Ultor do it
strande65: i claimed you my role what you want more

Few points to notice here:

1. Leo claims to be a soothsayer.
2. He refused to claim publicly, even though it would be beneficial for the village, allowing us to gain some control over the flow of votes.
3. He has no idea of what the role does apart from -1.
4. He takes a lot of time to respond to certain questions, with some of them being the reason of making a coffee (took him around 4 mins to make it) and doorbell (took around 5 mins).
5. Tries to delay his response by saying "I will see when I read topic later" - do note that he was looking at this topic for a long time. This happened yesterday aswell.

Having said that, I believe that Leo belongs to Team 2.

[Rainboy]

Okay everyone to start up, I am the Cop.

R0 negative peek: Voro's poulo
R1: Got roleblocked by a Vixen.
R2: NumBle, came back as Mafia (Team 2)

Since there were 2 people who got affected by a Vixen at R2 (Emizek and SiX), this eliminates the possibility of NumBle being framed, unless one of the other 2 was lying but that's highly unlikely considering NumBle's lynch pattern.

This is why I urge all villagers to vote lynch NumBle.

Idiot. Why claim publicly? You're dead or perma-roleblocked now. Might as well be a normal villager. I believe you because you really have nothing to gain from doing this as a mafia, but holy crap, think before you blurt things out. Would have been much better to go to Emz in private and had him claim for you - heck, would have been better to go to ANYONE in private and have them claim for you. The chances of both mafia knowing who you are is now 100%, and you are a very dead cop. I can only hope that you're not really the cop and that the cop is acting through you; but given your history, I kinda doubt that.

Numble claimed to me that he was not roleblocked last round, meaning that one of Ultor and Numble is now confirmed Mafia.

Conversation from last night:

Spoiler!

10:11 PM - Rainboy: FYI, I have it on good authority that you've been peeked mafia. Either way, village is in a pickle and I'd be more than happy to work with you.
10:11 PM - Numble: oh?
10:11 PM - Rainboy: But it would be quite nice to know who I'm dealing with - or at least an explanation for the peek.
10:11 PM - Numble: So you're saying that I've been peeked as a mafia?
10:11 PM - Numble: Great. just great.
10:12 PM - Rainboy: Well, yeah.
10:13 PM - Rainboy: I'm fine working with one of the mafia for now, but I'm not fine working with a liar.
10:13 PM - Rainboy: So I gotta get to the bottom of this if you're sticking to the village claim.
10:13 PM - Numble: Well I didn't get roleblocked
10:14 PM - Numble: so you can get your conclusion out of that.
10:14 PM - Rainboy: Which means one of the two of you is mafia.
10:14 PM - Rainboy: Good. I wasn't going to enjoy having to verify a roleblock.
10:15 PM - Numble: I guess it's up to you to chooose who to trust

Note that he doesn't actually deny the claim. He dodges it by telling me that I have to "choose who to trust."

[vote Numble]

[Rainboy]

[vote rainboy]

I don't really like how you're excusing and "downplaying Fortitude". If you thought it was "so helpful", having more villagers take it would've been beneficial. Suddenly downplaying it and then picking it doesn't make much sense to me.

Plus I still feel like there's about 4 or 5 powers that were much more useful, you claimed so yourself too.

Other player I'm not comfortable about right now are probably NumBle (weird lynches, ignoring Rainboy, Rainboy pressures him. Standard teammate strategy) and Voro's poulo (low activity, random votes: "wayward, rainboy & numble" none really explained, tells people "to follow him" for no real valid reason)

Probably others I'm missing, but feeling rather comfortable about Emziek with his judgement of Rainboy, I can't figure out why everybody's ignoring him though, most of what he wrote so far is logical, even more so this round.

Like I said, I don't think Fortitude is so helpful to village in general. I just took it specifically for my situation since I thought I would be shot early. There is the Sooth strategy, but I've been out of the game for quite a while and wasn't sure about how useful I would be on the information game. People have to, you know, peek me first.

As for Numble, see above. Additionally, if you think we're both on a mafia team, why would I buddy with him so hard R1, publicly claiming that I manipulated lynch with him? That's a really, REALLY dumb thing for a mafia team to do - for exactly the reason you see here: it draws a LOT of suspicion when one of them is proven mafia.

Seconded as far as Emz goes.

[Ultor]

Do note that NumBle may aswell have a Politician base power. This is why it's very risky to lynch him. I do think that Leo is the second best candidate to be lynched. This is why I need your opinions on this.