[Mafia Win] [S2] Assassins XII: Power Up!

[HATER]

K0ntra Lynched
K0ntra Died
K0ntra was aligned with the Village

Rainboy Haunted
Rainboy Survived

KatCrusader Shot
KatCrusader Survived

Lawliet Shot
Lawliet Survived

Arsenic Shot
Arsenic Survived


Panda Shot
Panda Died
Panda's alignment reveal was hidden.
Panda was a Soothsayer and is able to post in the thread and vote.

Panda will not count for or against parity for any faction.


Round 3 has begun.
Round 3 will end on Thursday, August 25th at 11:59:59 EDT (Miami Time).



[kill k0ntra, lynched]
[dusk]
[log Rainboy, survived Brutal]
[log katcrusader, survived Shot]
[log Lawliet, survived Shot]
[log Arsenic, Survived Shot]
[log Panda, Killed by Shot (soothsayer)]
[dawn]

[HATER]

The final distribution of all Base Powers of all players in the game, living or dead, is as follows:

Politician: 4
Soothsayer: 3
Poison: 1
Brutal: 1
Immunity: 3
Fortitude: 2
Spiritborne: 0
Blast Shield: 0
Vote Savant: 2
Insight: 1
Hinder: 0




Any extra base powers gained by any player with the Trainee role are not counted in this tally.

[Numble]

I was going to make a joke about #DicksoutforPanda but.. WHAT THE FUCK IS THIS?!

[HATER]

One more thing:

Dead soothsayers are also subject to (somewhat relaxed) anti-afk rules.


If a dead soothsayer does not make a game related post at least one every 2 rounds, their grave will be quieted, turning them into a normal dead player. They will not be able to vote, post in the thread about game-related topics, or speak with living players about the game. Their alignment will still remain obscured.


They may, however speak with a spiritborne if the spiritborne contacts them first. (Not applicable in this game since there are no spiritbornes)

[Ultor]

Lynching villagers now aren't we?

With the amount of Politicians, it's pretty much clear that Lawliet and katCrusader are mafia with this role (could be just 1 though). Lynching them is useless since Politician can survive 1 lynch and lynch only. This is why I recommend using night actions on those 2 to get them killed. The fact that they both survived means 1 if them had the Tough Trainee role while the other one was protected by their mafia doctor.

Rainboy seems to have survived Brutal from one of our villagers (either Kontra or sweedy) which makes me think that he's using Tough Trainee from team 2. Could also be Fortitude though.

This is why I recommend lynching NumBle who desperately seems to have this prevented; it seems that he's either a doctor or
Don (maybe Vixen too since I was roleblocked at R1). These are some members of the mafia teams:

Team 1: NumBle, Lawliet, katCrusader, Panda.
Team 2: Six, Rainboy

[vote NumBle]

As for the villagers, please do get in touch with me (especially any vote savants). If I'm not a confirmed villager to you by now then you're pretty much stupid. Don't let the mafia manipulate you and win this game, we still got a chance here.

[Emziek]

I was roleblocked this round by a Vixen, although the roleblock itself didn't affect me in any way. Good job not having peeked me yet though and wasting a roleblock+frame on a normal villager.

As for the villagers, please do get in touch with me (especially any vote savants). If I'm not a confirmed villager to you by now then you're pretty much stupid. Don't let the mafia manipulate you and win this game, we still got a chance here.

lmao

[Emziek]

@Cop: If you're still alive do NOT claim publicly or to anyone that isn't peeked at any point. Your role in this game is that of a Mason Leader, you cannot risk getting caught in the crossfire between the 2 mafia teams.

[SiX]

I was roleblocked this round by a Vixen, although the roleblock itself didn't affect me in any way. Good job not having peeked me yet though and wasting a roleblock+frame on a normal villager.

As for the villagers, please do get in touch with me (especially any vote savants). If I'm not a confirmed villager to you by now then you're pretty much stupid. Don't let the mafia manipulate you and win this game, we still got a chance here.

lmao

I was also roleblocked, so that makes it 2 Vixens.

[Ultor]

I was roleblocked this round by a Vixen, although the roleblock itself didn't affect me in any way. Good job not having peeked me yet though and wasting a roleblock+frame on a normal villager.

As for the villagers, please do get in touch with me (especially any vote savants). If I'm not a confirmed villager to you by now then you're pretty much stupid. Don't let the mafia manipulate you and win this game, we still got a chance here.

lmao

I was also roleblocked, so that makes it 2 Vixens.

No there is only 1 and he's in your team. I was roleblocked at R1, who was the other one that got roleblocked at R1?

[Rainboy]

Well. I went to bed and now nonsense has happened. Gotta head to work, but you can be sure I'll post tonight.

Lynching villagers now aren't we?

With the amount of Politicians, it's pretty much clear that Lawliet and katCrusader are mafia with this role (could be just 1 though). Lynching them is useless since Politician can survive 1 lynch and lynch only. This is why I recommend using night actions on those 2 to get them killed. The fact that they both survived means 1 if them had the Tough Trainee role while the other one was protected by their mafia doctor.

wat

Rainboy seems to have survived Brutal from one of our villagers (either Kontra or sweedy) which makes me think that he's using Tough Trainee from team 2. Could also be Fortitude though.

Captain obvious strikes again. I'll let you guess which of those I'm claiming.

This is why I recommend lynching NumBle who desperately seems to have this prevented; it seems that he's either a doctor or
Don (maybe Vixen too since I was roleblocked at R1). These are some members of the mafia teams:

I'll post more on that later.

Team 1: NumBle, Lawliet, katCrusader, Panda.
Team 2: Six, Rainboy

[vote NumBle]

As for the villagers, please do get in touch with me (especially any vote savants). If I'm not a confirmed villager to you by now then you're pretty much stupid. Don't let the mafia manipulate you and win this game, we still got a chance here.

Repeating Emz: wat, lol?

I'll be back in ~10-12 hours.

[Ultor]

Well. I went to bed and now nonsense has happened. Gotta head to work, but you can be sure I'll post tonight.

Lynching villagers now aren't we?

With the amount of Politicians, it's pretty much clear that Lawliet and katCrusader are mafia with this role (could be just 1 though). Lynching them is useless since Politician can survive 1 lynch and lynch only. This is why I recommend using night actions on those 2 to get them killed. The fact that they both survived means 1 if them had the Tough Trainee role while the other one was protected by their mafia doctor.

wat

Rainboy seems to have survived Brutal from one of our villagers (either Kontra or sweedy) which makes me think that he's using Tough Trainee from team 2. Could also be Fortitude though.

Captain obvious strikes again. I'll let you guess which of those I'm claiming.

This is why I recommend lynching NumBle who desperately seems to have this prevented; it seems that he's either a doctor or
Don (maybe Vixen too since I was roleblocked at R1). These are some members of the mafia teams:

I'll post more on that later.

Team 1: NumBle, Lawliet, katCrusader, Panda.
Team 2: Six, Rainboy

[vote NumBle]

As for the villagers, please do get in touch with me (especially any vote savants). If I'm not a confirmed villager to you by now then you're pretty much stupid. Don't let the mafia manipulate you and win this game, we still got a chance here.

Repeating Emz: wat, lol?

I'll be back in ~10-12 hours.

Pure mafia manipulation.

[Emziek]

Rainboy seems to have survived Brutal from one of our villagers (either Kontra or sweedy) which makes me think that he's using Tough Trainee from team 2. Could also be Fortitude though.

Captain obvious strikes again. I'll let you guess which of those I'm claiming.

Fortitude: Situational. I don't know how I feel about it. There's two mafia shots to worry about, but it doesn't stop hitman or infector.

[Katika VS]

Lynching villagers now aren't we?

With the amount of Politicians, it's pretty much clear that Lawliet and katCrusader are mafia with this role (could be just 1 though). Lynching them is useless since Politician can survive 1 lynch and lynch only. This is why I recommend using night actions on those 2 to get them killed. The fact that they both survived means 1 if them had the Tough Trainee role while the other one was protected by their mafia doctor.

Rainboy seems to have survived Brutal from one of our villagers (either Kontra or sweedy) which makes me think that he's using Tough Trainee from team 2. Could also be Fortitude though.

This is why I recommend lynching NumBle who desperately seems to have this prevented; it seems that he's either a doctor or
Don (maybe Vixen too since I was roleblocked at R1). These are some members of the mafia teams:

Team 1: NumBle, Lawliet, katCrusader, Panda.
Team 2: Six, Rainboy

[vote NumBle]

As for the villagers, please do get in touch with me (especially any vote savants). If I'm not a confirmed villager to you by now then you're pretty much stupid. Don't let the mafia manipulate you and win this game, we still got a chance here.

Ok, let's break this down...

Lynching villagers now aren't we?

Technically, we have yet to actually lynch a mafia. There is no "now" because this is how it's always been.

With the amount of Politicians, it's pretty much clear that Lawliet and katCrusader are mafia with this role (could be just 1 though).

Wow... are you a superhero or something? That conclusion was on another fucking continent.
A. The chance of anyone in the game being a Politician is 4/16 (25%). The chances that /both/ Lawliet and I picked Politician are 16/256 (6.25%). So, unless you're holding back some critical evidence about the last two votes that issue is a non-starter.
B. Wtf? Lawliet and I vote together two times and that's all the evidence you need that we're super tight mafia buddies? Spurious correlations much?

Lynching them is useless since Politician can survive 1 lynch and lynch only.

Lynching a politician is useless because they're only immune to one lynch. So, y'know, they're totally immune to any lynching whatsoever. Granted, it takes more time, but c'mon.

This is why I recommend using night actions on those 2 to get them killed.

The Vigilante just blew both of their shots. The only way the town is going to kill someone with a night action is if a townie decided to take poison, and it's not even an instakill. Unless... you want the mafia to do your dirty work for you?

The fact that they both survived means 1 if them had the Tough Trainee role while the other one was protected by their mafia doctor.

Again, you're assuming we're even on the same team & that we both took Politician. Given those assumptions, that is the only permutation. However, I believe I have already shown how preposterous said assumptions are. Discounting those assumptions gives us a whopping 42 permutations with which we could survive simultaneous nightkills, and only 3 of them require either of us to be mafia.

Rainboy seems to have survived Brutal from one of our villagers (either Kontra or sweedy) which makes me think that he's using Tough Trainee from team 2. Could also be Fortitude though.

It wasn't Kontra /or/ Sweedy. Sweedy's still alive for fuck's sake. As Brutal takes one round to charge, it's between Styx and Sweedy. Moving on...
Best case scenario, Rain just got confirmed as villager (0 trainees) Worst case, it's a coin toss. Unfortunately only one player seems to have taken insight, so proving it one way or another is going to be tricky :-/

This is why I recommend lynching NumBle who desperately seems to have this prevented; it seems that he's either a doctor or
Don (maybe Vixen too since I was roleblocked at R1).

There might be a language barrier here. Could you clarify? I have no idea what you're trying to say.

These are some members of the mafia teams:

Team 1: NumBle, Lawliet, katCrusader, Panda.
Team 2: Six, Rainboy

As stated earlier, all you have are spurious correlations coupled with an enormous lack of evidence of /any kind/. You're basing literally everything off of two votes. Why the fuck would Six be on Rainboy's team? Rain just voted to kill Six last round! And the round before that Six was voting opposite Rainboy in Panda vs Styx. Again, care to present some evidence?

As for the villagers, please do get in touch with me (especially any vote savants). If I'm not a confirmed villager to you by now then you're pretty much stupid. Don't let the mafia manipulate you and win this game, we still got a chance here.

How, exactly, have you confirmed yourself to be a villager? No evidence. No peeks. No /logic/. Just blind and ineffective rhetoric. A mafioso's weapon, imo.

Tl;dr

[vote Ultor]
Rain is definitely sus, but frankly Ultor's complete reliance on "charisma" just rubs me the wrong way.

[Emziek]

I want a detailed post from you Rainboy why you picked fortitude over Blast shield or Vote Savant.

original full post for context:

Spoiler!

Alrighty. Here's my current thoughts on things:

First, I disagree with Emz. Immunity is bad on vanillagers to have for the whole game, but it can be EXTREMELY useful to check the infector. Without immunity, two infectors could wreak havoc on the game. Honestly, without the addition of the two free rounds of Immunity, I would be calling OP on the sheer amount of poison the mafia can pump out.

Normal villagers should strongly consider keeping immunity for the first round or two. I won't try to tell you that keeping it is hands down better, because that really depends on how you value the two. It's just a matter of how much you're willing to trade the potential for the cop to get a bad peek VS the potential for the mafia to poison you. Plus, since Immunity IS actually good on PRs and Mafia, a Don peeking you really has no idea who you are, thus denying some information to the mafia as well.

So, now that's out of the way...

Politician: Meh. I don't want to recommend that a villager pick this up, but with the sheer amount of voting block the mafia comprise (especially with Con Man, and multiple base powers), it's probably wise to have someone take this... we could get pretty screwed late game if we can't comprise a decent voting block.

Soothsayer: Don't take this, in general. Exception: you're the cop, or you think there's a particularly high chance you will get killed early (and want to continue to help the village out).

Poison: Pretty useful to have for a normal villager. Gives us a chance to fight a mafia team who specs into lynch control, as the vig alone probably isn't enough to deal with that.

Brutal: Again, if you're not the Cop, don't take this. The chances of knowing who a mafia is when you die is going to be low. The chance of knowing a mafia who's not going to die to crap the next round is even lower. Cop has an outside chance of knowing stuff, but there's still probably better options to help him survive.

Immunity: Great on literally every PR. I mean, who doesn't like roleblock and poison immunity? Especially great on cop since he doesn't need to worry about screwing his own peek over. In fact, Immunity is my top choice for cop.

Fortitude: Situational. I don't know how I feel about it. There's two mafia shots to worry about, but it doesn't stop hitman or infector.

Spiritborne: We shouldn't have more than one. That said, very useful since I don't recommend the cop to have Soothsayer.

Blast Shield: One of the most useful things I can imagine for normal villagers. Utility and protection.

Vote Savant: Great for a couple normal villagers to have. Second best things I can imagine after Blast Shield.

Insight: Also useful to have one or two of in the village. Seems a little less useful to me since there are just flat out SO MANY MAFIA in the game. It is, however, info and info is always welcome.

Hinder: Now here's an interesting choice. Gotta be careful with it, but a three shot roleblock is VERY interesting, especially to a normal villager who can keep Immunity for a couple rounds while he figures out who to use it on.

Overall, this game seems quite balanced. You can't screw yourself too bad with any choice, though some do obviously make more sense on certain roles than others.

[Emziek]

The Vigilante just blew both of their shots.

How do you know this?