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#211 Post Re: [R3 ends 21 July, 23:59 EST] Mafia XXXI: L'Hôtel de la Mort Isolate
Well you guys should look who trusted Emziek with no doubt...wasn't it me who voted as 2nd on Ish and is it not more like a payback post where Ish mentioned to get me and Lien lynched then after he dies...what should show enough in my opinion that that i didn't play/played for his team. I think it would not be the best move from dead Ish to tell some names of his team.

@Hater would you really do it? Mention one of your team on who would all definitely focus then if Ish is/was mafia?
To be honest im not experienced enough in Ish's gameplay that he would do it or not but it would be in my eyes ridiculous, specially if we all saw he was mafia.

@Emziek i dont get your calculation style why Ultor is like 20% being evil and all others on 50%. Can you explain that pls?

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Wed Jul 20, 2016 6:43 pm
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#212 Post Re: [R3 ends 21 July, 23:59 EST] Mafia XXXI: L'Hôtel de la Mort Isolate
!!!*-Leo-*!!! wrote:
@Emziek i dont get your calculation style why Ultor is like 20% being evil and all others on 50%. Can you explain that pls?

Code:
9 players
5 villagers + 3 mafia + 1 SK

Emziek is 99% confirmed Journalist ( - 1 possible Village role)

4 villagers + 3 mafia + 1 SK

Ultor has been peeked not suspicious ( - 3 possible Evil roles, since the SK cannot be peeked and 2 of the 3 remaining mafia roles would be peeked suspicious)

4 villagers + 1 mafia

= 4/5 chance that Ultor is Village

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Wed Jul 20, 2016 6:52 pm
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#213 Post Re: [R3 ends 21 July, 23:59 EST] Mafia XXXI: L'Hôtel de la Mort Isolate
@Ultor it would be much better if you would play more with me together against the real mafia ones then to still think I'm one.

And to be honest i also can think you are still mafia even if you got peeked as not sispicious.
Why? Because i wouldn't be surprised if you are the real Godfather and that you had the idea to be so smart to act in the game since the beginning as a villager, were all others would say "hey don't be dumb, you are the godfather" a very important role for the mafia team, but you are sneaky beaky you convince all to trust you, what you did in the last game good on me. And you could play that way for 2 facts.
1) There was a trainee who would take your position if you would fail and all vote you at the beginning of the rounds or if you got killed by the veteran. (sure he is dead now, what maybe broke the good plan)
2) If you get peeked, what actually happend you get seen as "not suspicious" what give you the next advantage to get trusted between all villagers and act in the middle of us villagers.

But how mostly all would say it (what i dont't prefer, bcs it lead in the last game that i die as the deputy=officer assistent) it is more 'unlikely' that this scenario happend...but i saw all is possible in a game like that.
Nvm if you still wanna be that stubborn and don't wanna see the light that i did more for our town then many others, go ahead bruh.

@Emziek another note, since SiX (villager) had such a hard fight with HATER i would advice you to peek him next round or me.

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Wed Jul 20, 2016 7:02 pm
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#214 Post Re: [R3 ends 21 July, 23:59 EST] Mafia XXXI: L'Hôtel de la Mort Isolate
Emziek wrote:
!!!*-Leo-*!!! wrote:
@Emziek i dont get your calculation style why Ultor is like 20% being evil and all others on 50%. Can you explain that pls?

Code:
9 players
5 villagers + 3 mafia + 1 SK

Emziek is 99% confirmed Journalist ( - 1 possible Village role)

4 villagers + 3 mafia + 1 SK

Ultor has been peeked not suspicious ( - 3 possible Evil roles, since the SK cannot be peeked and 2 of the 3 remaining mafia roles would be peeked suspicious)

4 villagers + 1 mafia

= 4/5 chance that Ultor is Village


Well thanks and sry but im not that good in this pc things to be honest, to make codes and other things like that. I just learned from shadi in the last game how to ISO one guy, i dunno why but i didn't saw it on the right side on top. I'm to unexperienced in those things :lol:

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Wed Jul 20, 2016 7:06 pm
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#215 Post Re: [R3 ends 21 July, 23:59 EST] Mafia XXXI: L'Hôtel de la Mort Isolate
Still waiting for a Veteran counter-claim. Please PM if you're the real Veteran.

!!!*-Leo-*!!! wrote:
@Emziek another note, since SiX (villager) had such a hard fight with HATER i would advice you to peek him next round or me.

Very little chance I will survive - The only scenario I survive this round is if we get lucky, take out the sniper AND the SK/Mafia doesn't randomly attack my current room. I have yet to decide what room I will peek.

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Wed Jul 20, 2016 7:07 pm
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#216 Post Re: [R3 ends 21 July, 23:59 EST] Mafia XXXI: L'Hôtel de la Mort Isolate
Emziek wrote:
Still waiting for a Veteran counter-claim. Please PM if you're the real Veteran.

!!!*-Leo-*!!! wrote:
@Emziek another note, since SiX (villager) had such a hard fight with HATER i would advice you to peek him next round or me.

Very little chance I will survive - The only scenario I survive this round is if we get lucky, take out the sniper AND the SK/Mafia doesn't randomly attack my current room. I have yet to decide what room I will peek.


I meant your next peek if i said next round...my fault and i believe in your thoughts that you peek the right one ;)

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Wed Jul 20, 2016 7:20 pm
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#217 Post Re: [R3 ends 21 July, 23:59 EST] Mafia XXXI: L'Hôtel de la Mort Isolate
This is based mainly on the posts and votes made during R2 and the outcome of that round.

POOOOO:
- Pro village
-- Said he thought SiX was villager

- Anti-village
-- Voted for no lynch after Emziek's claim
-- Said FoS on Leo/HATER after Emziek's claim
-- Voted Ultor after Emziek's claim despite earlier that round saying he concluded he was village
-- Voted Ish last

Ultor:
- Pro village
-- Seems to think at start of the game I have a high chance of being village due to being "stabbed by both parties" - a dangerous thing for mafia to instill village trust in a villager perhaps?
-- Quite active, gives reads in thread for each player, that sort of thing is difficult to fake as you need to justify each point
--

- Anti-village
-- States that it is "crystal clear" that Emziek is mafia, despite it looking almost certian right now that Emziek is the village PR he claimed
-- States he has definite proof of Emziek being mafia but does not post
-- Asks for a village PR to contact him with nothing to justify his plea
-- Tries to steer the lynch away from the mafia onto Leo
-- Knew that SiX was HM. SiX was stabbed was stabbed that round

Lien:
- Anti-village
-- Has not given any insight/opinions on the game
-- Was the last to vote for Ish

HATER:
-- hater walls

Pr0Gr4mm4:
-- Inactive 2 rounds | Though this is does kind of fit his MO for the past few games

Leo:
- Pro village
-- Was first to follow Emziek's vote
-- Seems to be making generally pro village posts but tbh I'm so tired and I can't find the energy to sift through everyone's posts any more

Panda:
- Anti-village
-- has not many any game related posts or votes since the game started... isolation.php?tid=26287&pid=4934

Emziek:
- Pro-village
-- Claimed Journalist, got a mafia killed, seems legit


Conclusion:

It's a difficult decision between POOOOO and Ultor. POOOOO's contradictions though lead me more to believe he is slightly more likely that Ultor to be Mafia

[vote POOOOO]

However there are 4 mafia roles and 1 SK, so I will list in the order of suspicion my guesses for the rest:

Panda - Due to the fact that he is AFK, I suspect he may be trying to lay low
Lien~ - Also seems to trying to lay low, I don't buy the busy/inactive/uninterested excuse

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#218 Post Re: [R3 ends 21 July, 23:59 EST] Mafia XXXI: L'Hôtel de la Mort Isolate
Konijn wrote:
This is based mainly on the posts and votes made during R2 and the outcome of that round.

POOOOO:
- Pro village
-- Said he thought SiX was villager

- Anti-village
-- Voted for no lynch after Emziek's claim
-- Said FoS on Leo/HATER after Emziek's claim
-- Voted Ultor after Emziek's claim despite earlier that round saying he concluded he was village
-- Voted Ish last

Ultor:
- Pro village
-- Seems to think at start of the game I have a high chance of being village due to being "stabbed by both parties" - a dangerous thing for mafia to instill village trust in a villager perhaps?
-- Quite active, gives reads in thread for each player, that sort of thing is difficult to fake as you need to justify each point
--

- Anti-village
-- States that it is "crystal clear" that Emziek is mafia, despite it looking almost certian right now that Emziek is the village PR he claimed
-- States he has definite proof of Emziek being mafia but does not post
-- Asks for a village PR to contact him with nothing to justify his plea
-- Tries to steer the lynch away from the mafia onto Leo
-- Knew that SiX was HM. SiX was stabbed was stabbed that round

Lien:
- Anti-village
-- Has not given any insight/opinions on the game
-- Was the last to vote for Ish

HATER:
-- hater walls

Pr0Gr4mm4:
-- Inactive 2 rounds | Though this is does kind of fit his MO for the past few games

Leo:
- Pro village
-- Was first to follow Emziek's vote
-- Seems to be making generally pro village posts but tbh I'm so tired and I can't find the energy to sift through everyone's posts any more

Panda:
- Anti-village
-- has not many any game related posts or votes since the game started... isolation.php?tid=26287&pid=4934

Emziek:
- Pro-village
-- Claimed Journalist, got a mafia killed, seems legit


Conclusion:

It's a difficult decision between POOOOO and Ultor. POOOOO's contradictions though lead me more to believe he is slightly more likely that Ultor to be Mafia

[vote POOOOO]

However there are 4 mafia roles and 1 SK, so I will list in the order of suspicion my guesses for the rest:

Panda - Due to the fact that he is AFK, I suspect he may be trying to lay low
Lien~ - Also seems to trying to lay low, I don't buy the busy/inactive/uninterested excuse


3 Mafia, 5 villagers, 1 SK

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Wed Jul 20, 2016 11:07 pm
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#219 Post Re: [R3 ends 21 July, 23:59 EST] Mafia XXXI: L'Hôtel de la Mort Isolate
!!!*-Leo-*!!! wrote:
Konijn wrote:
This is based mainly on the posts and votes made during R2 and the outcome of that round.

POOOOO:
- Pro village
-- Said he thought SiX was villager

- Anti-village
-- Voted for no lynch after Emziek's claim
-- Said FoS on Leo/HATER after Emziek's claim
-- Voted Ultor after Emziek's claim despite earlier that round saying he concluded he was village
-- Voted Ish last

Ultor:
- Pro village
-- Seems to think at start of the game I have a high chance of being village due to being "stabbed by both parties" - a dangerous thing for mafia to instill village trust in a villager perhaps?
-- Quite active, gives reads in thread for each player, that sort of thing is difficult to fake as you need to justify each point
--

- Anti-village
-- States that it is "crystal clear" that Emziek is mafia, despite it looking almost certian right now that Emziek is the village PR he claimed
-- States he has definite proof of Emziek being mafia but does not post
-- Asks for a village PR to contact him with nothing to justify his plea
-- Tries to steer the lynch away from the mafia onto Leo
-- Knew that SiX was HM. SiX was stabbed was stabbed that round

Lien:
- Anti-village
-- Has not given any insight/opinions on the game
-- Was the last to vote for Ish

HATER:
-- hater walls

Pr0Gr4mm4:
-- Inactive 2 rounds | Though this is does kind of fit his MO for the past few games

Leo:
- Pro village
-- Was first to follow Emziek's vote
-- Seems to be making generally pro village posts but tbh I'm so tired and I can't find the energy to sift through everyone's posts any more

Panda:
- Anti-village
-- has not many any game related posts or votes since the game started... isolation.php?tid=26287&pid=4934

Emziek:
- Pro-village
-- Claimed Journalist, got a mafia killed, seems legit


Conclusion:

It's a difficult decision between POOOOO and Ultor. POOOOO's contradictions though lead me more to believe he is slightly more likely that Ultor to be Mafia

[vote POOOOO]

However there are 4 mafia roles and 1 SK, so I will list in the order of suspicion my guesses for the rest:

Panda - Due to the fact that he is AFK, I suspect he may be trying to lay low
Lien~ - Also seems to trying to lay low, I don't buy the busy/inactive/uninterested excuse


3 Mafia, 5 villagers, 1 SK

I said there are 4 mafia roles, I didn't say there were 4 mafia alive. I also only listed 4 players.

Edit: Just noticed a ton of typos in that post, forgief I've had virtually no sleep in the past 3 days :|

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Thu Jul 21, 2016 12:02 am
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#220 Post Re: [R3 ends 21 July, 23:59 EST] Mafia XXXI: L'Hôtel de la Mort Isolate
Like I said I'm quite new in town and get lost very easily in the hotel (too many corridors) but if I was part of the mafia which I'm not, I reckon I'd be smarter than just not post at all and would probably do what all the other mafia are most likely doing and try and blend in.

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Thu Jul 21, 2016 12:35 am
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#221 Post Re: [R3 ends 21 July, 23:59 EST] Mafia XXXI: L'Hôtel de la Mort Isolate
You've failed to convince me Konijn. It could be your lack of sleep talking but some of your reads seems off. You're pointing fingers Ultor where its not due while you're patting Leo for being Pro-village when you yourself said it you cba reading everyones posts.




Ultor
Konijn wrote:
-- Seems to think at start of the game I have a high chance of being village due to being "stabbed by both parties" - a dangerous thing for mafia to instill village trust in a villager perhaps?

WIFOM argument and not necessarily a pro-village move.
Konijn wrote:
-- Knew that SiX was HM. SiX was stabbed was stabbed that round

Irrelevant when Ultor can't possibly be the SK. You're just pointing fingers.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Leo

Konijn wrote:
Leo:
-snip-

-- Seems to be making generally pro village posts but tbh I'm so tired and I can't find the energy to sift through everyone's posts any more

Says this when he also admits he doesn't have the energy to read through all the posts.
!!!*-Leo-*!!! wrote:
And im not dumb at all i have many secretly in my mind as for Programma, Lien, HATER and Panda (very low posting, best way to hide as mafia)...Only on one I believe in my "gut feeling" on Konijn that he is innocent and trust me or trust me not, i don't know why i just have that feeling on him.
NOTE: Konijn had made 2 game related post at this point, didn't vote in R1 and only joined the BW on confirmed mafia very late into the round. Nothing Konijn had made by this point was pro-village.
!!!*-Leo-*!!! wrote:
@Emziek:
Well i dont trust you blind, because you can be on different thoughts wrong too...but i said i follow you so i will put my vote on the silent guys...in that i believe at the beginning that there are some hiding mafias.

Nothing wrong here in normal cases, infact I would applaud Leo, but with everything else surrounding Konijn and Leo I think there may be a connection here.

Gerty wrote:
Reverse Tally R1:
!!!*-Leo-*!!!: PandAboYii -> earliergray -> No Lynch

Gerty wrote:
Reverse Tally R2:
!!!*-Leo-*!!!: Ultor -> Ish -> Ultor -> Ish
Konijn: Ish

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Last edited by Emziek on Thu Jul 21, 2016 1:45 am, edited 3 times in total.



Thu Jul 21, 2016 1:39 am
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#222 Post Re: [R3 ends 21 July, 23:59 EST] Mafia XXXI: L'Hôtel de la Mort Isolate
I have 1 Veteran claim. If you're the real VETERAN and haven't claimed to me make SURE you counter-claim to me SOON. I'm 99% confirmed Journalist(Village peeker).

Current prime suspects: Konijn & Leo (See previous post)
HATER is likely the SK. (See: Ultors screenshots+chatlogs) Veteran is probably going to shot him, we haven't decided yet.

Anyone who is inactive start posting NOW so we can sort the mafia out.

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Thu Jul 21, 2016 1:42 am
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#223 Post Re: [R3 ends 21 July, 23:59 EST] Mafia XXXI: L'Hôtel de la Mort Isolate
@Emziek: Well you wanted my opinions so I gave them, I never said they are accurate, just how I felt based on the previous round's actions.

I didn't read most of Leo's posts because they're extremely lengthy and by the time I had gotten to him I had already spent a good hour or so reading + writing analyses. I skimmed over his posts, hence why I said they seem pro village and added that I didn't read them properly.

I didn't vote in R1 because I was hospitalised...

You say I'm pointing fingers at Ultor when it's not due, can you explain why it's not due? I listed the things that he did which I believe are anti-village and instead of making counter-points to those you simply dismissed it out of hand. Also, why can't Ultor be the SK?

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#224 Post Re: [R3 ends 21 July, 23:59 EST] Mafia XXXI: L'Hôtel de la Mort Isolate
Konijn wrote:
@Emziek: Well you wanted my opinions so I gave them, I never said they are accurate, just how I felt based on the previous round's actions.

I didn't read most of Leo's posts because they're extremely lengthy and by the time I had gotten to him I had already spent a good hour or so reading + writing analyses. I skimmed over his posts, hence why I said they seem pro village and added that I didn't read them properly.

I didn't vote in R1 because I was hospitalised...
oh yeah my bad.. Point still stands thoufh, you could hsve been more active in dharing your reads and opinions

You say I'm pointing fingers at Ultor when it's not due, can you explain why it's not due? I listed the things that he did which I believe are anti-village and instead of making counter-points to those you simply dismissed it out of hand. Also, why can't Ultor be the SK?

Read the chatlogs between Ultor and SiX. As for the last question, the only possible evil role Ultor can have is godfather as he has been peeked not suspicous.


//Sent on me phone so sorry for wierd format on this post //

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#225 Post Re: [R3 ends 21 July, 23:59 EST] Mafia XXXI: L'Hôtel de la Mort Isolate
@Konijn; First of all the reason for voting no lynch was because I was confused as I talked to ultor and leo. They both were convincing me they are villagers, I basically ignored voting Ish because he was getting lynched anyways. I voted ultor because he was really suspicious to me (check our chat that I posted in previous posts). When there was no chance of getting ultor lynched, I voted Ish. Now as to why I am voting ultor (I got another reason to believe he is mafia), he was asking for Journalist claims while it was pretty much obvious emziek was the journalist and peeked Ish as mafia. He also seems to have problems with people changing their vote which again puts him to question, I mean why would he be concerned with someone who is changing votes just because their suspicion switches from player to player. Leo atm seems to be the vigilante.


Thu Jul 21, 2016 6:58 am
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