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#106 Post Re: [R2 ends 19 July, 23:59 EST] Mafia XXXI: L'Hôtel de la Mort Isolate
Oh and still waiting on that analysis from you, Ultor

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#107 Post Re: [R2 ends 19 July, 23:59 EST] Mafia XXXI: L'Hôtel de la Mort Isolate
Okay so 11 players remaining: 6 villagers, 4 mafia and 1 SK. In order to win the game, we need to lynch a mafia this round. We can't blame the doctor for not being able to protect anyone as in this game there are different mechanics which could've influenced his decision including room swaps (which happen before protections). Anyway, as promised, here is my analysis for few people (as I don't have time sadly) which should help the village with finding the Mafia/SK:

@Leo
Very easy to read. By ISOing your posts, its crystal-clear that you're a mafia. ISO #6 and 7 shows Leo swiftly agreeing with the openion of other people which is extremely odd. This is because according to Leo's behaviour on the past games, he tends to be very aggressive and contradictive. This kind of demonstrates the relationship between Leo and those other 2, Ish and POOOOO. This is why I believe that by lynching Leo and him becoming the mafia would instantly reveal the truth about Ish and POOOOO.

Now as for Leo's voting pattern, he voted to lynch Panda at the beginning which is reasonable as you would want to get information from AFKs. However, the fact that he changed his vote to earliergrey (ISO #8) just because Panda replied with a useless post is suspicious. Ideally you would want to pressure the player and not simply let go because he said sorry. Looking at ISO #11, guess what he did? Exactly the same thing. Coming from his perspective as a mafia, he wanted to stay active by acting as a villager lashing out random votes and instantly taking them off so he would cause no suspicion.

This is why I urge everyone to [vote !!!*-Leo-*!!!] (unknown target) because its a critical step for the village.

ISO: isolation.php?tid=26287&pid=7345

@POOOOO
Very suspicious as he posted 2 votes: first one was an AFK check while the other was an unjustified bandwagon join.

ISO: isolation.php?tid=26287&pid=7799

@Pr0Gr4mm4
2 posts in total and the second one being a vote in a bandwagon against me. This might have been a failed attempt to disguise his mafia role by simply jumping on a more 'reasonable' bandwagon rather than Crisp0's.

ISO: isolation.php?tid=26287&pid=4414

@Konijn
Got nothing to say, need your opinion on the game so far.

@Lien
Using the "I'm busy" excuse. ISO #4 does provide us with some information though. The fact that she was questioning POOOOO's actions would eliminates the factor of them being on the same team. This means that if one dies we would the alignment for the other one. There is also a possibility if her being the SK, however, its very low at this point.

ISO: isolation.php?tid=26287&pid=1894

@SiX
ISO #5 demonstrates his lack of knowledge about the SK's actions which would simply eliminate him from being a SK. However, there is a slight possibility of him using this post as a diversion which is very smart- but I'm not counting on that for now. ISO #8 provides a lot of information for the village. SiX is arguing with Ish which reveals a new relationship between the two: they're not on the same team. I believe that SiX is a villager.

ISO: isolation.php?tid=26287&pid=4332

@Ish
Looking at ISO #5, Ish seems to follow this technique which is informative for the village but also persuasive in the same time. Basically what he's doing is trying inform the village of how the roles work while also demanding of what to do when you have that role. I'm not able to have a conclusive answer based on this behaviour but for now I'm slightly starting to think that you're a mafia. Also, since he voted against Lien on ISO #13, we know that those two aren't on the same team.

ISO: isolation.php?tid=26287&pid=6420

I will post another reply with analysis regarding the remaining players, but for now I urge everyone to lynch Leo.


Mon Jul 18, 2016 3:56 pm
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#108 Post Re: [R2 ends 19 July, 23:59 EST] Mafia XXXI: L'Hôtel de la Mort Isolate
I also would like the HM to contact me, I've found something under my bed.


Mon Jul 18, 2016 3:58 pm
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#109 Post Re: [R2 ends 19 July, 23:59 EST] Mafia XXXI: L'Hôtel de la Mort Isolate
@Ultor

I'll type later more to that, for now i think your analysis sucks. I voted on AFK'S just for the simply reason to hear anything.
The votes i did was to hear a hello or some thoughts of them, because it sucked in my opinion like Shadi felt the same in the last game, that many participate in a game and stay AFK then. As you can see i played in all games aggressiv and specially for the village town. If i would be mafia i could let my vote on earliergray, for the fact that it was just my vote only, but I didn't want to risk to put a vote on anyone and others follow me maybe and a "not bandwagon" as SiX and Emziek said resulted to get Crispo lynched, one of our town. You switched his vote on him for the word "self preservation" a bit low explanation from an analysis guy like you. The more i get the feeling it was the easiest for you to use this words after you saw that a lot voted on him and that you risk that a villager get lynched was not so obvisious then. I'm happy that i didn't put a vote of those who get lynched or stabbed or killed so i don't Need to blame me for anything. It actually shows that i really care about our town. You can also look how i asked why they wanna vote on Crispo (more Information than all others?) and why no one changed his vote from him to an other. All stand on their votes and the fact is he is dead what is really sad.

Also a small note before i tell later more about my thoughts, before the game started i thought about it to not post much and stay in the background, because all games i tried to help the village town i got vote lynched if i was active or got killed by mafia guys if they saw I had some thoughts that bring us villagers closer to the real mafia guys.

So for my thoughts SiX and you Ultor are the most suspicious...SiX voted on Crispo first and dind't changed his vote off from him and he is an experienced player so he could easy found a more suspicious guy like Crispo. And as i said your self preservation post was to low for me specially if it was 48hour rounds and you were many times on in the game here too.

[vote Ultor]

I'm not sure with my vote on you and if you want we can talk later on steam and you can try to convince me, but i also know after you tricked me a bit in the last game if you were mafia i can't trust anyone for real (it's normal) and i need to trust more my "gut feeling" and wait for suspicious moves from others or/and hope for good analysis from other experienced player who convince me with their post who must be mafia.

Also if i remember the most games i played so far, all the time all quiet (I'm busy or AFK) got shown at the end as mafia ones. And i think the game mode wont change. No real mafia risk with posts that have more then maybe 2-3 sentences to get readable by others then.
For the future i think i'll put more pressure next on some of them, like Pr0Gr4mm4, HATER, POOO and wont let them secretly survive if they are mafia and do it like the most ones in the games before, rubbing their Hands and laughing like "look this active, stupid villagers, how they lynch each other of their own town"

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Last edited by ZeRo#1 on Mon Jul 18, 2016 4:51 pm, edited 2 times in total.



Mon Jul 18, 2016 4:30 pm
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#110 Post Re: [R1 ends 17 July, 23:59 EST] Mafia XXXI: L'Hôtel de la Mort Isolate
Emziek wrote:
SiX wrote:
HATER wrote:
I'm not terribly sure about this wagon on crisp0.

[vote ultor]

Finger of suspicion on SiX, just a gut feeling.


And I'm not terribly sure about this wagon on Ultor either.
Finger of suspicion on HATER for placing his vote on Ultor rather than on crisp0, who was bound to flip innocent, so he could have a motive to point fingers at others.

You've yet to explain your reason for keeping your vote on Crisp0 even after you being out of danger. SiX you reek of anti-town this game.


There's 2 simple answers for this.
(1) Someone had to be lynched, not necessarily Crisp0, but someone. And that someone happened to be CrisP0 whom I kept my vote on.
(2) The round ends far after I've gone to bed. The host's timezone is UTC -4, mine is UTC +3, meaning the round ends about 7 in the morning for me. Basically about 5 hours before I went offline.


Mon Jul 18, 2016 4:34 pm
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#111 Post Re: [R1 ends 17 July, 23:59 EST] Mafia XXXI: L'Hôtel de la Mort Isolate
SiX wrote:
Emziek wrote:
SiX wrote:
HATER wrote:
I'm not terribly sure about this wagon on crisp0.

[vote ultor]

Finger of suspicion on SiX, just a gut feeling.


And I'm not terribly sure about this wagon on Ultor either.
Finger of suspicion on HATER for placing his vote on Ultor rather than on crisp0, who was bound to flip innocent, so he could have a motive to point fingers at others.

You've yet to explain your reason for keeping your vote on Crisp0 even after you being out of danger. SiX you reek of anti-town this game.


There's 2 simple answers for this.
(1) Someone had to be lynched, not necessarily Crisp0, but someone. And that someone happened to be CrisP0 whom I kept my vote on.
(2) The round ends far after I've gone to bed. The host's timezone is UTC -4, mine is UTC +3, meaning the round ends about 7 in the morning for me. Basically about 5 hours before I went offline.

(1) True enough but the round was extended a full extra 24 hours and you had plenty of time to withdraw your vote and start investigating someone else or keep trying to investigate CrisP0. Instead you kept your vote, on a bandwagon, which held no reason behind it anymore. This is anti-town.
(2)The following happened more than 24 hours before the round end.
POOOOO wrote:
[unvote SiX]
[vote Crisp0]
Six does not seem so suspicious by how he posts, lets check out as the game goes further.

It would seem your argument holds no grounds.

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Last edited by Emziek on Mon Jul 18, 2016 4:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Mon Jul 18, 2016 4:52 pm
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#112 Post Re: [R2 ends 19 July, 23:59 EST] Mafia XXXI: L'Hôtel de la Mort Isolate
!!!*-Leo-*!!! wrote:
You switched his vote on him for the word "self preservation" a bit low explanation from an analysis guy like you.


Assume I am a Town Member, Vanilla villager or a power role; doesn't matter, and we are lynching someone R1 without any clues, then I'm certain that if I die, a Villager's life will be lost. But should I lynch someone else, there's a 5 / 14 chance that we'll lynch a Non-town member.

Of course I would also attempt to pull this off as a Mafia or SK. But believe me, I'd be more subtle than to use the word "self-preservation" publicly, unless of course my plan was to use reversed psychology on you and to make you believe just that.

!!!*-Leo-*!!! wrote:
The more i get the feeling it was the easiest for you to use this words after you saw that a lot voted on him and that you risk that a villager get lynched was not so obvisious then.


If you pay attention, I was the second player to vote on CrisP0. Prior me placing my vote, there were about 5 candidates who had 1 vote placed on them, with Emziek been the first one to place his vote on CrisP0. Being the LHLV, it was thus natural for me to place my vote on 1 of the other 4 candidates, and that candidate ended up being CrisP0.

!!!*-Leo-*!!! wrote:
I'm happy that i didn't put a vote of those who get lynched or stabbed or killed so i don't Need to blame me for anything. It actually shows that i really care about our town. You can also look how i asked why they wanna vote on Crispo (more Information than all others?) and why no one changed his vote from him to an other. All stand on their votes and the fact is he is dead what is really sad.


You not voting for those who end up killed tells absolutely nothing. But the fact that you believe it proves you innocent is bullocks. This quote really reeks of a scum trying too hard to appear as Town. "i really care about our town", no natural town member would ever have to say that.

!!!*-Leo-*!!! wrote:
Also a small note before i tell later more about my thoughts, before the game started i thought about it to not post much and stay in the background, because all games i tried to help the village town i got vote lynched if i was active or got killed by mafia guys if they saw I had some thoughts that bring us villagers closer to the real mafia guys.


Or you are not certain how to proceed given a Mafia role and uses this as an excuse. Activity, whether or not you are lynched, is a town member's obligation. ONLY a Mafia member want to remain in the background, unnoticed.

!!!*-Leo-*!!! wrote:
So for my thoughts SiX and you Ultor are the most suspicious...SiX voted on Crispo first and dind't changed his vote off from him and he is an experienced player so he could easy found a more suspicious guy like Crispo. And as i said your self preservation post was to low for me specially if it was 48hour rounds and you were many times on in the game here too.


Whether the round was 24 hours or a 100 hours, at the rate the game was progressing, we didn't seem to get any more clues. As such R1 is typically a random lynch where luck decides whether the lynched person is a Mafia or a Town Member. About the rest, I explained it to you in the first quote as well as to Emziek in my post above.

SiX wrote:
There's 2 simple answers for this.
(1) Someone had to be lynched, not necessarily Crisp0, but someone. And that someone happened to be CrisP0 whom I kept my vote on.
(2) The round ends far after I've gone to bed. The host's timezone is UTC -4, mine is UTC +3, meaning the round ends about 7 in the morning for me. Basically about 5 hours before I went offline.


My current reads.

Town: Ultor

Neutral (uncertain): Ish
Neutral (suspicious): Lien and HATER

Mafia: Leo and Emziek

[Vote !!!*-Leo-*!!!] (unknown target)


Mon Jul 18, 2016 4:53 pm
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#113 Post Re: [R2 ends 19 July, 23:59 EST] Mafia XXXI: L'Hôtel de la Mort Isolate
Your reads are way off SiX

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Mon Jul 18, 2016 4:57 pm
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#114 Post Re: [R2 ends 19 July, 23:59 EST] Mafia XXXI: L'Hôtel de la Mort Isolate
Sry SiX don't get me wrong..my post was completly meant to Ultor..and i mentioned your BW on Crispo in it where i showed that this "no bandwagon" resulted to kill one of us.
And yes my fault you voted as 2nd on Crispo but you still didn't changed your vote to another.
And for your thoughts SiX you can watch in the games before i've played i care much about our town. And guess what i was = villager.
And i change my votes not to get not seen as a mafia, i'll do it to try all to hold our village mates/town allive.
And in my opinion to hear all the time better vote on him or another is "sry" ridiculous in my opinion...all vote lynch that risk to get villager friends killed, lead to lose mates we need to fight against mafia ones with power roles. Mostly like it happend again direct 3 villagers get killed and that is way much for me. So this lynch votes on "maybe" mafia lead all the time to lose 1 more villager as mafia kill with their power.
And that if randomly votes get made on players, on what the most can't be sure that he is definitely a mafia guy.

In my opinion i would like to play more a round where no one get lynched if not 100% sure mafia, than to vote and risk to kill a villager. And that happend all the time.

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Last edited by ZeRo#1 on Mon Jul 18, 2016 5:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Mon Jul 18, 2016 5:00 pm
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#115 Post Re: [R2 ends 19 July, 23:59 EST] Mafia XXXI: L'Hôtel de la Mort Isolate
Will read everyone's post and then post my opinion, kinda starting to understand this game.


Mon Jul 18, 2016 5:03 pm
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#116 Post Re: [R2 ends 19 July, 23:59 EST] Mafia XXXI: L'Hôtel de la Mort Isolate
Might as well come out clean

I'm the Journalist (Village peeker) R0: Lawliet (not suspicious), R1: Ish (suspicious).
Lawliet: I never actually contacted Lawliet because I wanted to observe his plays first, as such I random voted him R1 but later caught up on his observation on Ultor which I agreed with at the time. I was going to claim to him this round depending on his reaction to the R1 end alas he died.
Ish: I decided to peek Ish because something felt off with his posts R1, I pointed this out in my posts during R1 as well.


My reads:
Ish: 100% confirmed mafia
SiX: likely the SK - its clear hes not playing for the same team as Ish and a lot of his action so far has been anti-town
Ultor: Likely village - his analysis was on point with Ish, he clearly doesn't play for the same team as Ish but this also means he could be the SK if SiX is not
Leo: Possibly mafia
Not sure about the others

[vote Ish]

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Mon Jul 18, 2016 5:15 pm
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#117 Post Re: [R2 ends 19 July, 23:59 EST] Mafia XXXI: L'Hôtel de la Mort Isolate
I have a HM claim. Anyone wants to counter this claim?


Mon Jul 18, 2016 5:18 pm
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#118 Post Re: [R2 ends 19 July, 23:59 EST] Mafia XXXI: L'Hôtel de la Mort Isolate
I also want to point out that Ish is still inside Room 5

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Mon Jul 18, 2016 5:19 pm
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#119 Post Re: [R1 ends 17 July, 23:59 EST] Mafia XXXI: L'Hôtel de la Mort Isolate
Emziek wrote:
(1) True enough but the round was extended a full extra 24 hours and you had plenty of time to withdraw your vote and start investigating someone. Instead you kept your vote, which held no reason behind it anymore. This is anti-town.


What do you mean when you say "your vote held no reason behind it anymore"? What you state is that simply because POOOOO decided to unvote me, I should have unvoted CrisP0 as well. But I hope you realize that self-preservation isn't the only reason to participate in the lynch. Another, far more important motive, is to participate in the lynch for the sake of it, to ensure that town members, no matter the outcome, are the ones directing who lives and who dies. As such, my motive to participate in the lynch just for the sake of it, was not removed. And that, is Town. Not anti-town.

You also speak of investigating, something I genuinely believe myself to have done and still do. But information and what you can get out of people R1 is limited, at least for a player like me. To state that I can correctly pinpoint people's alignments R1 is an exaggeration of my abilities. But you on the other hand, what have you done? For the most part, I've seen you mainly asking questions rather than reaction baiting people by voting these who you suspect. Lets take a look at your posts:

Emziek wrote:
Ish wrote:
Ultor wrote:
[vote Lawliet]


Why do you want a vote on lawliet?? At that moment in time he would have been guaranteed a lynch, if emziek didn't unvote.

@Emziek, your reason for unvoting??

Don't want to start a bandwagoon for no reason


While I understand that you do not want to start a bandwagon for no reason (that would be a random lynch if there were no motive behind), you also stated the following:

Emziek wrote:
3 out of 14 votes isn't a bw


Firstly, at the time, your vote was the only one placed on Lawliet. So to me, that seems like a contradiction. Secondly, saying my thoughts out loud, there's 2 things that comes to mind:

(1) Are you sure that Lawliet didn't convince you to unvote him by poking you @steam?

Emziek wrote:
[vote Lawliet]

Poke


Emziek wrote:
[unvote]


But for some unfortunate reason, he's no longer alive.

WaywardVole wrote:
[Kill Lawliet, stab]
Lawliet was a Vanilla Villager


Could this mean that you are the Serial Killer?

The second thing to come to mind is that while you may not want to start bandwagons, you gladly join one? That's typical scum (or SK in this case) play.

Emziek wrote:
I'm slightly suspicious about both Ish and Ultor. I get some mafia reads from some of what Ish was writing earlier in the thread. I also find it curious how Ultor got nothing to say about Ish and SiX, comparing to how he observed and commented on most stuff last game, something feels of. I get it he might just busy with real life as he says himself, but real life is also a convenient excuse to avoid having to move into the spotlight.

Therefor Ultor takes my vote for now
[vote Ultor]


A third thing coming to mind from reading this, you suspect Ultor and Ish, but you do not bring up Lien's activity and her real life excuse. That's very suspicious.

As for what I originally referred to, you ask questions, but you do not do anything to investigate more than necessary:

Emziek wrote:
Pr0Gr4mm4 wrote:
[vote Ultor]
ill just follow this wagon

why?


Emziek wrote:
(2)The following happened more than 24 hours before the round end.
It would seem your argument holds no grounds.


But without anything breaking the status quo, the information, whether 24 hours or 100 hours, remains the same and as such my motive for voting is also the same.

This was what I originally wanted to post, but I see you revealed yourself as the Journalist, so I'll read up on that in a bit.


Mon Jul 18, 2016 5:20 pm
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#120 Post Re: [R2 ends 19 July, 23:59 EST] Mafia XXXI: L'Hôtel de la Mort Isolate
Lien is always inactive, except when shes mafia.

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