[Third Party Win] [S2] Mafia XXIX: Defibrilation

[Numble]

Most of the players in this game have played at least one game before, and there are four mafia guys, which makes me think that Konijn is innocent (and I'm innocent too), so they are leaving us to vote out either me or Koni, as it doesn't really matter. Only 3 votes (and Konijn's nolynch vote) have been cast by now, so they probably don't want to interfere with the lynching.
That's why I will [vote nolynch]. It doesn't give us as much information about others as lynching a person would, but it's better than losing one of us.

Personally, I think Andy (#Blameitonleon) seems a little bit suspicious based on the last game he played. He was the don, and he would usually support a bandwagon on somebody by saying he agrees with others or stuff like that:

I read everything again and again. I spoke with Ultor and he convinced me to vote for CrisPo. Although, crisPo says that he is not mafia. Sorry crisPo but Ultor and the other guys here convinced me more than you.

LOL. I just wake up bro. Well, I can't say much because it's too early. But for what I've read I can't trust 100% Six. So i'll go for it and let's see what happen
[vote SiX]

It's just a thought.

Kontra I'll be honest, that's a far fetched reasoning. I mean pushing someone to the spotlight due to their gameplay on their last (first ever) game...

On that note

[vote Lawliet]

You've been awfully quiet.. what's on your mind?

[Apekiller]

To be honest I don't think massively lynchvoting K0ntRa will lead to anything at this point. We have not yet heard anything from a number of players (WayWardVole, Lawliet, Crisp0, Mystic and ARSENIC, correct me if I'm wrong or missing someone), in contrast K0ntRa has shown that he's actively participating in the game.

That being said, I am currently injured so I won't be able to cast a vote

EDIT: ARSENIC is also hospitalised, so he won't be able to cast a vote either.

[Cruxell]

@Kontra: Thing is, if no one protects chances are that we lose 3 people (SK, Mafia shot and lynch + if mafia chooses to use the hitman shot). But then again with docs fucking up a protection we lose the same amount of people should the mafia actually shoot the protected one. But then again should they choose someone else that's 4 down + hitman shot that's 5 people down. it's pretty easy calculations in my pov. I don't see why you say it's complicated. Do point something out that I might have missed.

Tbh, I think the docs should find each other as fast as possible and make sure that they don't protect the same person. Sure this is R1 we still have next to nothing but analysis on the game role set.

It's not easy calculations, I'll try to explain why but as I said it's hard to calculate it so I might be mistaken.
Basically, with 3 docs (2 docs and medic) the chances of someone dying due to overdose are (slightly) higher than the chances of someone dying cuz of being killed by the maf.
15 players D(octor)1 protects someone randomly - no harm done. D2 protects randomly - 6.66% chances of it being the same guy. D3 protects someone = 12.88% chances ( 6.66% + 6.22%. 6.22% = 6.66% - 6.66% : 15)
If we're not counting the hitman shot, 2 protectable kills may occur during a night - SK's and mafia's shot. The chances of the docs protecting two of the guys who were targeted are (i think) also 12.88%. So I personally wouldn't be willing to take the risk if I was the doc. I would just be quiet and let the other village doc do it, so the chances of OD would be quite lower. But, there is also the hitman who can shoot, and the chances would be changed when people would die... As I said, complicated.

@Doctors, if somebody is likely to get killed, do not protect him because the chances of you both protecting the same guy are way higher. And the mafia might try to trick you = the medic might protect him hoping that some1 else does it too, and the others could kill someone else.

[Apekiller]

@Kontra: that logic is kind of flawed imo.

If the doctors were to do as you are suggesting them to, then nobody would ever be protected and they would effectively be Normal Villagers. The village power roles, if played correctly, can save two lives each night (not counting mafia doc's interference). The only thing is that it's very important for the doctors to know who the other doc is and/or know who the other doctor is protecting.

If this was done, the chances of an OD would be reduced by a whole lot. Also, your calculations did not take into account the Meth Addicts (Serial Killer + 1 Villager) who can not OD.

[Cruxell]

@Kontra: that logic is kind of flawed imo.

If the doctors were to do as you are suggesting them to, then nobody would ever be protected and they would effectively be Normal Villagers. The village power roles, if played correctly, can save two lives each night (not counting mafia doc's interference). The only thing is that it's very important for the doctors to know who the other doc is and/or know who the other doctor is protecting.

If this was done, the chances of an OD would be reduced by a whole lot. Also, your calculations did not take into account the Meth Addicts (Serial Killer + 1 Villager) who can not OD.

Ppl would be protected once the doctors learn who is the other doctor.

Oh, forgot about that. Still, the chances would then be reduced by only ~0.44 %.

Yeah, umm, I guess it is smart for the doctors to protect others now that I've read your replies to my thought.

[SiX]

K0ntRa's reasoning is correct.

If we begin with the Medic, what will he do? Ideally, he would be healing his own Mafia Members. Why? To protect them from the Serial Killer. But he won't do that, at least not early game. Why? Because the risk of a Mafia dying doubles if that's the case. There's 2 doctors who can kill his target (Mafia) whereas there's only 1 Serial Killer. With that in mind, the Medic will try to heal people who are not Mafia, in an attempt to kill the Town Members.

What will the Doctors do? If they unite, they can work together as a Vigilante to take people down. But that's not the case right now. Right now, they have zero clue who they will be saving. They could A) save a Mafia from dying to the SK or B) overdose a Town Member, either by visiting the same person, or by visiting the one whom the Medic visits. In this aspect, the Town has to count on the Medic for saving us against the Serial Killer while the Mafia has to count on the Doctors using their ability to teamkill.

I can only conclude that the Doctors shouldn't do anything, at least not for now. They should wait until they get in touch with a fellow doctor / medic or until the first medic / doctor dies, before they start to heal.

@Hater, will Doctor save be made public? Like [X was shot / stabbed but survived]

[SweedyGonzales]

K0ntRa-senpai noticed me!
It was a random lynch to get some action started, probably best vote on people who are AFK, no-one's done anything much so far. Let's see what the night brings.
[Unvote]

Docs should probably just wait and see if the other comes out saving someone they think is werewolf/mafia.

[Ultor]

Haven't spoken to anyone yet but by reading replies it seems there are alot of assumptions being made. Its still R1 and once I start talking to people, hopefully I can come up with something.

I'll put my vote of the first person who claimed to be a villager, in this case, Leo. This is likely to be changed later on.

Im innocent like allways
My thoughts are that the Mafia Guys are smart and they injured one innocent and a mafia guy to make it not so obvisiouly and if im not wrong they could easy kill one of us innocents if both voted on one guy or am i wrong?

Also i think one mafia guy can be afk since he didn´t tried to kill one per night..hmhh...villagers i believe in us, let us kill those bad Boys ^^

[vote !!!*-Leo-*!!!]

[Cruxell]

Haven't spoken to anyone yet but by reading replies it seems there are alot of assumptions being made. Its still R1 and once I start talking to people, hopefully I can come up with something.

I'll put my vote of the first person who claimed to be a villager, in this case, Leo. This is likely to be changed later on.

Im innocent like allways
My thoughts are that the Mafia Guys are smart and they injured one innocent and a mafia guy to make it not so obvisiouly and if im not wrong they could easy kill one of us innocents if both voted on one guy or am i wrong?

Also i think one mafia guy can be afk since he didn´t tried to kill one per night..hmhh...villagers i believe in us, let us kill those bad Boys ^^

[vote !!!*-Leo-*!!!]

Claiming villager doesnt really mean much and doesnt have much effect on anything since everyone will claim it. I dont think you shouldve voted him for that.

[Cruxell]

About the mini bandwagon on me;
Sweedy's vote on me was random. I was just joking in the chatbox and he knows that. Random lynches are good, we can figure out who is evil by analyzing how they vote; But let's be honest, it would make way more sense to vote an AFK guy instead of me. The chances of me and some AFK guy being mafia are the same, so ask yourselves; Would it be better to vote out someone active, who can contribute a lot to the village, or some AFK guy who won't contribute anything regardless of if he is dead or not. @#BlameItOnLeon, @Leo, I'm asking you two to unvote or change your lynch. Unfortunately, I don't think I'll be online when this round ends, furthermore, I doubt I will be able to play from now to the morning, so it'd be awesome if you guys could try to convince these two guys to remove their votes.
EDIT: Additionally, even Sweedy Gonzales has changed his vote, and he is the only person of the three who gave some reason for doing it (Andy said it was random, Leo wanted me to convince him not to vote me). Also, he is the guy who started the bandwagon.

[vote Lawliet]

Not a single post except [in].

I won't be able to change my vote, probably.

[ZeRo#1]

About the mini bandwagon on me;
Sweedy's vote on me was random. I was just joking in the chatbox and he knows that. Random lynches are good, we can figure out who is evil by analyzing how they vote; But let's be honest, it would make way more sense to vote an AFK guy instead of me. The chances of me and some AFK guy being mafia are the same, so ask yourselves; Would it be better to vote out someone active, who can contribute a lot to the village, or some AFK guy who won't contribute anything regardless of if he is dead or not. @#BlameItOnLeon, @Leo, I'm asking you two to unvote or change your lynch. Unfortunately, I don't think I'll be online when this round ends, furthermore, I doubt I will be able to play from now to the morning, so it'd be awesome if you guys could try to convince these two guys to remove their votes.
EDIT: Additionally, even Sweedy Gonzales has changed his vote, and he is the only person of the three who gave some reason for doing it (Andy said it was random, Leo wanted me to convince him not to vote me). Also, he is the guy who started the bandwagon.

[vote Lawliet]

Not a single post except [in].

I won't be able to change my vote, probably.

Haven't spoken to anyone yet but by reading replies it seems there are alot of assumptions being made. Its still R1 and once I start talking to people, hopefully I can come up with something.

I'll put my vote of the first person who claimed to be a villager, in this case, Leo. This is likely to be changed later on.

Im innocent like allways
My thoughts are that the Mafia Guys are smart and they injured one innocent and a mafia guy to make it not so obvisiouly and if im not wrong they could easy kill one of us innocents if both voted on one guy or am i wrong?

Also i think one mafia guy can be afk since he didn´t tried to kill one per night..hmhh...villagers i believe in us, let us kill those bad Boys ^^

[vote !!!*-Leo-*!!!]

Claiming villager doesnt really mean much and doesnt have much effect on anything since everyone will claim it. I dont think you shouldve voted him for that.

I preety much agree with that...and i tried to start a bit the game with claiming im a villager , that i´m actually.
I hope my village guys trust me and if you wanna hear more from me just tell it me but pls dont jump to fast on a BW with no good reason and kill one of your village mates maybe.

As i can see K0ntra take more care of me and villager friends so im going to change my lynch vote to Ultor...also for the reason that in the last game Ultor tried all to convince me that he is not a Mafia guy and that he is one of us (villagers) and it was true he been the watcher.
I told him how he feel now as a Mafia guy with a role now...and all he said was "i wished" and "XD" and i think that is not the Ultor that try all to convince me that he is one of us..so my conclusion is actually:

[vote Ultor]

[WaywardVole]

It's a pretty busy day for me, so I'm just popping in for a moment. I'll [vote No Lynch] for now, but that'll probably change when I get back later tonight.

From what I've skimmed, Six has a point about doctors being careful at the moment. With the mafia and SK out there, we don't want villagers to go completely ham and accidentally start offing one another.

[Voropoulo]

Well i really voted randomly. I have nothing against you kontra. Although, Leo voted you after my vote against you. So this is suspicious. But you voted for me in first place and i know that i am villager. I'm not gonna change my vote. I just wanted to say that.

[SweedyGonzales]

Joining the AFK murder spree.
[Vote Lawliet]

[Numble]

Woah I wasn't expecting a bangwagon on Lawliet. I was only applying pressure so he'd get active [unvote]