Donald Dump wrote:This post makes absolutely no logic. Chances of her being the thug are only 1/4. And while it wouldn't be a too big waste for the vig to use one shot as he rarely gets to use them, that doesn't mean he should take a 1/4 chance.
Absolutely no logic? I don't think you've figured it out yet. While its true that the chances of her being a thug is 1/4 it still doesn't matter if the vigilante uses his shot- we still manage to kill a mafia you see. What else do you propose for the vig to do? Simply saving his shots until he ends up being dead? That's completely stupid tbh.
As for NumBle and Six being the SK, here is why. First of all, have a look at Emizek's ISO#6. Just when he directs attention into SiX and NumBle, he ends up being shot and stabbed- you see the link here? Notice how he mentioned SiX specifically and how he tried playing defensively in order to prevent Blaze from being lynched. Now that could mean few things. SiX having R0 peek at Blaze as a villager and tried to form some kind of alliance with Blaze which will benefit him later on- this way his identity would remain anonymous. However, it can also be completely the opposite- Blaze being a mafia and SiX knowing this wanted to stay out of the mafia's radar (fooling them into thinking that they can ignore SiX for few rounds as he wouldn't cause any trouble). Even though those 2 scenarios are only theories and I believe that the second scenario is more likely, but we can't dismiss the fact that Emizek ended up dying just after he mentioned SiX and NumBle (don't forget that Emizek was also stabbed by the SK).
ISO for SiX- http://www.neondragon.net/isolation.php ... 2&pid=4332
. ISO# 2, 4, 5 and 6 are all posts related to SiX defending Blaze.
As for ISO#10 for SiX:-
1) You are not confirmed as a Town member in any way.
If you ISO my posts, you will see that I'm the only one with 25 posts in this game. What does this mean? A very active, eager to win villager. I've also made vital contributions into the game, revealing multiple evidence regarding different issues and making on-point analysis- example, how I tried preventing Playboy from being lynched. If you notice, almost every post I made out of those 25 has helped the village in a way or another. Do you seriously think that if I was a mafia, I would draw this much attention?
2) You have your "reasons" for suspecting me and Numble of being the SK, yet you still haven't presented them publicly so everyone can check the facts for themselves.
Looks like you don't have patience when we are doing 48 hour rounds. If you read my post carefully, you would have figured out that I specifically said "I will make another post about the game once I get home".
3) Since (1) says you are not a confirmed villager, there's little to no point in trusting your words if you don't provide concrete data to back it up.
1 was mostly based on your opinion, I'm pretty sure others have figured out that I'm a villager by now (if you have objections please present yourself). And why the hell would I need concrete data in R2? Are you trying to make me claim (if I was the cop?) my role? I've already presented the correlation between Emizek and you and Blaze aswell, is that not enough? Obviously you wouldn't trust my words if you were the SK lol.
4) Even if you have a good theory supporting your claim that either I or Numble are the SK, it has to be pretty darn good to overweight (>) a confirmed Mafia. Just some flimsy speculations won't be enough to stray from the given path at hand.
I've already presented an efficient path where the vig can take part in.
And besides, what you said above isn't necessarily true. There's nothing saying that Dee Dee is the Thug. We can only know he's 1 / 4 Mafia roles. The reasons for why we can't know he is the Thug is because your statement 'at this point seems to be Dee Dee having deceived everyone into lynching her.' can't possibly be true.
There is nothing saying Dee Dee is a thug? Do you really think someone would be that stupid to reveal their role to unproven claim by Donald Dump? I don't. Remember that the mafia know each other and they support each other. One wouldn't dare to make a devastating move without any advice from their teammates. And how does my statement not make sense? It was a logical speculation based on the fact that this was a planned move from the mafia team.
There would be no merit for the Thug to have himself lynched for no reason
Yeah what if one of the other mafia members was about to be lynched (e.g. Blaze)? What would you do if you were a mafia? Use the thug to save one of their own. Also if you have noticed, by ISOing Dee Dee, there is no relation to anyone else apart from Playboy who was obviously a village, and Larah. This is why I started to think that Larah is actually a villager. The mafia has nothing to lose in this scenario.
In fact it's better that we lynch the Thug than lynching a villager again or not lynching anyone at all
Yeah, adds more to your suspicion lol. Lynching is one of the primary features in this game which allows you to gather information around. Now you simply want to shut off this method and stop the flow of information. How is this good for the village? This is why having the vig shot is a much more efficient method of eliminating or revealing the identity of Dee Dee. And as if not lynching anyone is possible.
And in addition to this, it's safe to say that based on K0ntra's discussion this wasn't calculated from Dee Dee's side. It was clearly a rookie mistake and as such him being the Thug would simply be an unfortunate coincidence.
How is safe to assume this and how did you reach to the conclusion of it being a rookie mistake based on no 'concrete evidence' at all? You speak of coincidences like they happen at all times. Simply believing that it was a rookie mistake is pretty stupid because in this game, you should not underestimate people.
With the above in mind, it sounds as if you are trying to protect Dee Dee from being lynched. With 13 players alive, it will in the worst case scenario put us down to 9 players with 4 / 9 being Mafia members. Because remember that the SK, too, has a toughness, just like the Thug. It's in our interest to lynch Dee Dee and hope that the Mafia happens to shoot the SK rather than trying to find him ourselves through lynching potential suspects.
Yeah I bet you would still say that I'm protecting Dee Dee after this post. And SK does indeed have toughness which is why I'm trying to get him lynched. That way it would expand our options next round- you are providing the village with delusional hopes.
I call both Dee Dee and Ultor out on being Mafia.
Of Course you would call me a mafia. I've noticed that while you are replying to my posts, you are only pointing out the negative, unlikely sides of it. You are not proposing a fix or anything useful for the village at all. In fact, I don't even think you care about the village in this game.
I also wanted to make a post about NumBle, but sadly I do not have the time right now and I'm getting stronger vibes from SiX instead. Hopefully I can come up with something about NumBle tomorrow.
For now, I believe that it's best for the vig to shoot both Dee Dee and Blaze. We lynch SiX. If lynching SiX is not possible, then I'd recommend using the other shot on him. I still believe that Blaze should be killed.