Okay, so we need to concentrate on those 4, there is atleast 1 mafia here.
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Styx - 4 - NumBle, Rainboy, Lawliet, katCrusader
The fact that Rainboy, Lawliet and katCrusader changed their vote just before round end is very suspicious- especially the time difference between Lawliet's and katCrusaders's post: only 6 mins. This suggests that there is a connection between the 2.
NumBle's reason to lynch Styx:
NumBle wrote:Because I wanna hear what you have to say and considering you know how to play this better than most people here, quite odd you're behaving "stupidly".
Note that the quote above was the only post related to the vote, even though Styx responded, NumBle kept his vote.
NumBle wrote:And back then I had a Power role. Does it look like I have one now if I'm shouting all around the game? Besides voting off someone who's active is like grabbing a dagger and backstabbing each villager one by one.
This was NumBle's reply to my post. From this we conclude that NumBle does not have any PR role (IF he was telling the truth). Again as mentioned previously, NumBle's activity and playstyle does not match in this game. I've noticed from the games he played that he becomes very active as a mafia and stays low as a villager. Please do note that mafia tend to be active too, so voting someone who is active is not "backstabbing each villager one by one".
Rainboy's reason to lynch Styx:
Rainboy wrote:I don't like this panda wagon. Things have been too quiet, which suggests to me that he's not mafia or, if he is, the mafia isn't worried about his lynch. Too many actives for him to be AFK; too few votes for the mafia to be worried about looking suspicious by saving him.
Wayward offered enough to satisfy me, but Styx has been pretty useless so far this game. I'll throw my hat in the ring to see what we get with his lynch.
According to this we can see that Rainboy voted to lynch Styx solely based on his opinion- there was no logical reason to not vote Panda. Panda didn't even try to defend himself, he simply counter-voted Six.
Connection between NumBle and Rainboy (accourding to the steam logs posted by Rainboy):
12:50 AM - Rainboy: I tried to start it earlier, but I was at church.
12:50 AM - Rainboy: And it took Xen and Lawliet a bloody hour to write their posts.
12:50 AM - Rainboy: Which made it tighter than I really wanted.
12:50 AM - Rainboy: Not enough time for people to respond.
12:51 AM - Kaebbel: You organized it?
12:51 AM - Rainboy: Numble and I did, yeah.
12:51 AM - Rainboy: I was uneasy with the panda lynch, for the reasons I stated.
So we know that Rainboy and NumBle were behind the Styx lynch. However, the fact that Rainboy revealed such crucial information to Emizek suggests multiple scenarios: 1. NumBle convinced Rainboy to lynch Styx, therefore NumBle is the real culprit and Rainboy is basically a villagers. 2. Rainboy was the one who convinced Numble to lynch Styx and the other way around. 3. NumBle and Rainboy are both mafia and Rainboy made a mistake by revealing this info about NumBle. 4. Similar to scenario 3, but instead of it being a mistake it was intended for psychological manipulation (very unlikely though because its too risky).
I would like to know who contacted Lawliet and katCrusader regarding this Styx vote, was it Rainboy or Numble?
Lawliet's reason to lynch Styx:
SAVE THE PANDAS..
1. I really don't think panda is a mafia.. the reason is explained in my previous post and in Rain's post.
2. Pressure Styx to get him to talk.
As for his reason 1, he refers to this post:
As we can see, Lawliet was completely against the idea of lynching Panda, he is telling us that Panda's teammates would have helped him out- totally contradicting himself by defending Panda for being too 'cute'.
As for reason number 2, he mentioned that he wanted to apply pressure on Styx to get him to 'talk'. However, he's completely ignoring the fact that this reply was made at 2:29 AM, just around 1 hour before round end. Bad mistake there Lawliet.
As for Lawliet's vote against Kontra, it seems that he's completely ignoring the fact that Styx is actually a villager and instead, moving onto someone else (who doesn't seem to be that suspicious) rather than accusing those who convinced him to lynch Styx (based on the steam logs) which is what Lawliet would normally do based on previous gameplays.
As for katCrusader's reason to lynch Styx- I found nothing about of lynching him rather than protecting Panda. This was the only reason:
katCrusader wrote:I concur; Pandas are too cute to lynch <3
Can't say much other than the fact that she (or he
) was the only one to vote no lynch at the beginning. Typical mafia behaviour tbh.
Note that Panda did not defend himself, he asked his (possible) mafia teammates to help him out. In this case, we see that katCrusader and Lawliet were the first ones to help him out.
There might be 1 villager between those 4 which imo would be Rainboy, however, this is based on nothing. Otherwise, they could all be Mafia, just different teams. My vote stands between NumBle and Lawliet.